2024-08-21
59 分钟In his second appearance, Nate Silver joins the show to cover the intersections of predictions, politics, and poker with Tyler. They tackle how coin flips solve status quo bias, gambling’s origins in divination, what kinds of betting Nate would ban, why he’s been limited on several of the New York sports betting sites, how game theory changed poker tournaments, whether poker players make for good employees, running and leaving FiveThirtyEight, why funky batting stances have disappeared, AI’s impact on sports analytics, the most underrated NBA statistic, Sam Bankman-Fried’s place in “the River,” the trait effective altruists need to develop, the stupidest risks Tyler and Nate would take, prediction markets, how many monumental political decisions have been done under the influence of drugs, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded July 22nd, 2024. Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.
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hello, everyone, and welcome back to conversations with Tyler.
Today I'm in New York City chatting with the great Nate silver.
It is late July 2024, and Nate has recently risen in status.
You might say.
He has a new book out, which I thought was excellent, informative, fun on every page.
On the edge, the art of risking everything.
Nate, welcome.
Thank you, Tyler.
Now, if we simulated the world a thousand times in how many of those scenarios would you end up more or less where you are today?
This is, of course, a question I asked Peter Thiel and other people in the book.
Your father was a political scientist, presumably very smart, got you connected to politics.
Well, I mean, this is a hard.
I mean, I feel unfair that you're asking me this question that I.
This unfair question I ask other people.
But no, I think, like, I think I would wind up somewhere in this vicinity, like, 20% of the time, or maybe less than that.
I don't know.
I mean, because the fact that you had this big breakthrough, or I did.
In the kind of 2008 election, which really did involve a lot of happenstance in certain ways, I had been an online poker player, and basically the us government shut down online poker.