Are opinion polls accurate

6 Minute English

语言学习

2022-12-15

6 分钟
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  • Neil: I'm Neil.

  • Sam: And I'm Sam.

  • Predicting the future is not easy

  • but that's exactly the job of opinion pollsters –

  • researchers who ask people questions to discover

  • what they think about certain topics.

  • Often their aim is predicting which political party will win

  • in election by asking members of the public

  • how they intend to vote.

  • Neil: But predicting the future is never one hundred percent accurate,

  • and opinion polls don't always get it right.

  • In 2016, few pollsters predicted a victory for Donald Trump

  • over Hillary Clinton in the US presidential election.

  • Sam: And in the 2020 US elections,

  • most polls predicted Trump would lose to Joe Biden

  • by a much larger amount than he actually did.

  • These mistakes, sometimes called misfires -

  • when things do not work in the way intended -

  • have damaged the reputation of opinion pollsters.

  • In this programme we'll be taking a look into the opinion polling industry