Hugh Mellor on Probability

休·梅勒谈概率

Philosophy Bites

社会与文化

2014-12-08

13 分钟
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What is probability? Not an easy question to answer. We thought our best chance of clarity on this question was from Emeritus Professor of Philosophy at Cambridge University and author of a book on the subject, Hugh Mellor...
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  • This is philosophy bites, with me, Nigel.

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  • If you throw two dice, the probability of a double six is one in 36.

  • That sounds straightforward.

  • But what do we mean by probability?

  • Is chance something which is out there in the world?

  • Or by using the concept of probability, are we merely expressing our ignorance of the future?

  • Might a brilliant physicist be able to use the angle and speed at which the dice are thrown to calculate what numbers they'll land on?

  • Probability is a notoriously knotty idea to grasp.

  • So here to help us untangle it is Hugh Mellor.

  • Hugh Mellor, welcome to philosophy bytes.

  • Thank you very much.

  • The topic we're going to focus on is probability.

  • So what is probability?

  • There are three things that are called probability.

  • There's a mathematical structure which uses numbers between zero and one to measure things.

  • And then there are other things that those numbers are used to measure.