Right now, the economy is running hot. Inflation is high, and central banks are pushing up interest rates to fight it. But before the pandemic, economies around the world were stuck in a different rut: low inflation, low interest rates, low growth. In 2013, Larry Summers unearthed an old term from the Great Depression to explain why the economy was in this rut: secular stagnation. The theory resonated with Olivier Blanchard, another leading scholar, because he had made similar observations himself. Larry and Olivier would go on to build a case for why secular stagnation was a defining theory of the economy and why government policies needed to respond to it. They helped reshape many people's understanding of the economy, and suggested that this period of slow growth and low interest rates was here to stay for a long time. But today, Larry and Olivier are no longer the duo they used to be. As inflation has spiked worldwide, interest rates have followed suit. Earlier this year, Larry announced that he was no longer on the secular stagnation train. Olivier, meanwhile, believes we're just going through a minor blip and will return to a period of low interest rates within the near future. He doesn't see the deep forces that led to a long-run decline in interest rates as just vanishing. Who's right? The future of the global economy could depend on the answer. Help support Planet Money by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices NPR Privacy Policy
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For the last year or two, we have been in a certain universe, a universe of high inflation and higher interest rates than we're used to.
The economy has been overheated, as they say, which is not great.
But not too long ago, just before the pandemic, we had the opposite problem.
We were in a universe of abnormally low inflation and abnormally low interest rates.
The economy was underheated, we'll say, which is also not great.
Some inflation is good.
Really?
There's a sweet spot.
Yeah.
Low inflation and low interest rates are signs that something is wrong with the economy.
And for years, it seemed like nothing we did could get us out of the low interest rate, low inflation rut, not just in the US, but around the world, in Germany, in Italy, the UK, Japan.
And economists were saying, it looks like we are going to stay in this universe for a long time.
Uh, obviously, we have now left that universe.
Oh, yeah, big time.
But one leading economist is saying, yeah, but we'll likely return to that old universe of low inflation and low interest rates once things settle down.
Another leading economist, though, is like, I'm not so sure.
Uh, Larry Summers, you are saying, no, we're going to be in a whole different universe now.
I'm saying at least there's a substantial chance of that, yes.
So you're leaning like, the world we've known is probably not going to come back anytime soon.