Stephen Miran on Activist Treasury Issuance and the Monetary Policy Implications of a Second Trump Term

斯蒂芬·米兰谈激进国债发行和特朗普第二任期对货币政策的影响

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

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2024-09-02

49 分钟
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Stephen Miran is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Stephen is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins David on Macro Musings to talk about his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled, *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy,* as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidential term would mean for the Fed and financial markets.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Stephen’s Twitter: @SteveMiran Stephen’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *ATI: Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy* by Stephen Miran and Nouriel Roubini   *Trump Wants a Weaker Dollar But Wall Street Doubts He’ll Get One* by Saleha Mohsin and Carter Johnson   *Trump Allies Draw Up Plans to Blunt Fed’s Independence* by Andrew Restuccia, Nick Timiraos, and Alex Leary   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Breaking Down *Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy*   (00:21:33) – Responding to Criticism from Janet Yellen and Others   (00:28:21) – Addressing Trump’s Push for a Weaker Dollar   (00:38:24) – Can We Weaken the Dollar While Still Ensuring Its Use?   (00:43:07) – What a Second Trump Term Would Mean for Fed Independence and Crypto   (00:49:19) – Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past, present, and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth, a senior research fellow at the Mercator center at George Mason University.

  • And I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Stephen Marin.

  • Stephen is a former senior advisor to the US Treasury Department, a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, and a fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

  • Stephen joins us today to discuss his recent paper with Nouriel Roubini titled activist Treasury Issuance and the tug of war over monetary policy, as well as his thoughts on what a second Trump presidency would mean for the fed and financial markets.

  • Stephen, welcome back to the show.

  • Thank you.

  • It's a real pleasure to be here.

  • Thanks for having me.

  • It's great to have you on again.

  • Now, previously I had you and Dan Katz on to talk about your paper where you called for reforms of the Federal Reserve, another interesting paper in addition to the one we're going to talk about today.

  • So you are just filled with great insights and opportunities for reform in the financial system.

  • Well, I don't know about insights, but I certainly enjoy asking questions that are difficult to ask.

  • Okay.

  • And as a previous guest, you are now also probably drinking from a nominal GDP targeting mug as well.

  • So welcome to the class.

  • And everything tastes better from it.

  • Absolutely.

  • Okay.