Ernie Tedeschi on Full Employment, the US Safe Harbor Premium, and the Current Path of R-Star

Ernie Tedeschi 谈充分就业、美国安全港溢价以及 R-Star 目前的发展道路

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

教育

2024-07-01

59 分钟
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Ernie Tedeschi is the Director of Economics at the Budget Lab and is a visiting fellow at the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy. Recently, Ernie was a chief economist at the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors, and he is also a returning guest to the podcast. Ernie rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US safe harbor premium and R-star. David and Ernie also discuss the benefits and healing properties of a high employment economy, Ernie’s favorite measures of the labor market, the current and past trends in the path of R-Star, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Ernie’s Twitter: @ernietedeschi Ernie’s Budget Lab profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Political Risks to the U.S. Safe Harbor Premium* by Ernie Tedeschi   *Recent Movements in [R-star]: The Most Important Interest Rate That You have Never Heard Of* by Ernie Tedeschi   *The 2024 Economic Report of the President* by the White House Council of Economic Advisers   *The Fed Governor Who Proved Larry Summers Wrong* by Nick Timiraos   *Summers, Blanchard Say Waller’s ‘Soft-Landing’ Paper Has Errors* by Craig Torres   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:01:49) – Ernie’s Experience at the CEA   (00:09:15) – The Benefits and Healing Properties of a High Employment Economy   (00:15:28) – Ernie’s Favorite Measures of the Labor Market   (00:20:17) – The Broader Debate Surrounding Labor Market Measures   (00:24:07) – The Basics of a US Safe Harbor Premium   (00:28:56) – Political Risk vs. Exorbitant Privilege   (00:33:46) – Debt Ceiling Crises as a Political Risk Scenario   (00:37:01) – Fiscal Dominance as a Political Risk Scenario   (00:43:25) – Outlining the Distinction Between Different R-Stars   (00:48:39) – Past and Current Trends in the Path of R-Stars   (00:54:46) – Assessing the Sources of High Productivity   (00:58:22) – Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past, present and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckworth, a senior research fellow at the Mercator center at George Mason University.

  • And I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Ernie Tedeschi.

  • Ernie is the director of economics at the budget lab and a visiting fellow at the Soros center for Financial Markets and Policy.

  • Recently he was a chief economist at the White House's Council of Economic Advisors.

  • Ernie joins us today to talk about the CEA and some of his recent work on the political risks to the US Safe harbor premium and r star.

  • Ernie, welcome back to the program.

  • Thanks, David.

  • Happy to be part of the two mug club now.

  • Yes, you are part of an elite club.

  • And what was interesting in preparing for the show, I went back and looked at your previous time, and it was February 2020.

  • Oh, my gosh.

  • You were the last person to record here in the studio before the pandemic hit.

  • Little did we know.

  • Sorry, folks, it was all my fault.

  • Well, fortunately, you had a great program and we ended on a high note before we went home and we started recording podcasts that way.

  • But a lot has happened since then, obviously the pandemic.

  • But you yourself and private sector at the time.

  • But then you went to the CEA, you spent some time there, and now you're outside at some think tanks at the university.