Trump’s doctrine: the sequel

特朗普主义:续集

The Foreign Desk

新闻

2024-11-16

41 分钟
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Following Trump’s first cabinet appointments, we consider what his second term might mean for tensions between international powers. Andrew Mueller speaks with Amy Mackinnon, national security reporter for ‘Foreign Policy’; John Herbst, former US ambassador to Ukraine; Stephen Young, former ambassador to China; and Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • The American voters who re elected Donald Trump appear to be getting what they wanted.

  • Among the people the President elect has nominated to help him lead the free world are a Fox News host and sometime soap spokesmodel as Secretary of Defence, a conspiracy theorist and pro Russia shill, as Director of National Intelligence, a real estate tycoon and golf buddy as special envoy to the Middle East.

  • The world being as dominated by the United States as it is.

  • The rest of us get all this, whether we like it or otherwise.

  • We, the rest of the world, that is, have been through this once before, of course.

  • But President elect Trump being President elect Trump established form is not necessarily much help to us.

  • And 2024 is not 2016 in the United States or in the wider world.

  • The first time Trump was elected, Russia had not launched a full scale war upon Ukraine and the Middle east was not ablaze.

  • And the first time Trump was elected, he was constrained by a combination of his own bewilderment and more orthodox colleagues serving as guardrails and or training wheels.

  • Trump now has four more years control over both houses of Congress, a compliant Supreme Court, and it is safe to assume he assumes a licence to remodel the world.

  • What should that world expect?

  • How should that world prepare for it?

  • And what will actually happen when Trump tries again to apply his simplistic solutions to complicated problems?

  • This is the Foreign Desk.

  • Where the rubber really meets the road is, yes, what Trump looks to prioritise, but also, you know, how he responds to the crises that are probably just going to land on his death, whether or not he wants.

  • And how he and his team navigate those, I think is going to be the real, the real proof.

  • Trump is on the record as saying if Russia doesn't go along, he will arm Ukraine.

  • And he's never been armed before.

  • So I don't think we should presume that Trump will hand Ukraine to Putin on a silver platter, even if some very naive people in Trump's world are prepared to do that.

  • You want a two state solution?