2024-10-26
40 分钟The war in Ukraine and Russia has affected East Asian foreign policy in more ways than you might expect. We explore North and South Korea's involvement in the conflict with former UK ambassador John Everard, China’s watchful eye with Oriana Skylar Mastro and the pivotal forthcoming elections in Japan with James D Brown. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
If one only measures these things in kilometres on a map, the front lines of Ukraine are a long way from the frictions of Southeast Asia.
Recent events have reminded, however, that the two theaters are closer than they might look.
Earlier this week in Seoul, Russia's ambassador to South Korea was summoned for one of those meetings at which biscuits are not offered.
South Korea's Foreign Ministry wished to express its extreme displeasure at the reported presence of North Korean troops in Russia, possibly en route to reinforcing Russia's rampage in Ukraine.
China, meanwhile, has been keeping a very close eye on Ukraine since Russia launched its full scale assault in February 2022, looking for clues as to how the world might respond should Beijing decide to act on its long simmering ambition of reincorporating Taiwan into the motherland.
However little Taiwan's actual people might fancy this outcome.
And Japan, which votes in a general election on Sunday, sees the defence of Ukraine as a defence of the Western led order which has underpinned Japan's own security since the end of World War II.
In an increasingly fractious neighbourhood, Japan remains constitutionally prohibited from asserting itself as a traditional military power.
Is there a realistic prospect of European troops exchanging fire with North Korean soldiers?
Have Russia's travails in Ukraine made China any less likely to try its luck with Taiwan?
And could the looming presidential election in the United States compel everyone to rethink everything?
This is the foreign desk.
The North Koreans appear to have decided that they are never going to be able to form any kind of worthwhile relationship with the United States and that therefore they need to reinforce success.
They've got good relations with China, increasingly warm relations with Russia.
That's where you go.
And that means that you don't need to be nice to South Korea anymore.
Great powers don't tend to let other countries have bases in their countries or put their forces under the command of others.
So on the outside, when people are assessing the China Russia relationship, they tend to discount it.
But historically, that was never going to be the case.
The real question is, you know, are the Chinese better prepared to fight wars because of this relationship with Russia?