Explainer 432: The theatre of war

讲解员432:战区

The Foreign Desk

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2024-08-29

6 分钟
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Andrew Mueller explains why the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah seems to have peaked – and promptly fizzled out – over the weekend.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • When is a war not a war, or at least not quite, at the risk of tempting fate always a necessary qualifier to any discussion of the Middle East?

  • We may have seen an answer to that question earlier this week in the latest exchanges between Israel and the Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

  • The facts as we understand them are broadly these.

  • Early on Sunday morning, Israel launched a major air operation against Hezbollah, sending perhaps 100 fighter jets to hit Hezbollah rocket launcher sites across southern Lebanon.

  • A short while ago, the IDF identified Hezbollah terrorist organization preparing to fire missiles rockets towards Israeli territory.

  • The intention, according to Israel, was to preempt an anticipated barrage from Hezbollah.

  • Hezbollah's long threatened retaliation for Israel's assassination last month in Beirut of senior Hezbollah military commander Fouad Shukur.

  • About an hour after the Israeli raids, the barrage, or a possibly reduced version of the barrage, came anyway.

  • Hezbollah launched around 300 rockets and drones at Israel.

  • This was very much not the first exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah since Hamas attacked Israel last October 7, but it was the biggest.

  • Nevertheless, if we take at face value the battle damage assessments offered by both sides, remarkably little damage was done.

  • Israel says that no Hezbollah missile struck what Hezbollah claimed was their primary targets, the Glilot military base near Tel Aviv, home to the Israel Defence Forces Unit 8200, an intelligence unit, and the Einshmer Air Force base near Hedera.

  • Israel did announce the death of one Navy sailor aboard a patrol boat and injuries to two others caused by shrapnel from one of Israel's own Iron Dome air defence missiles, which struck a Hezbollah drone near the craft.

  • A few injuries were reported elsewhere.

  • Hezbollah says that Israel's claims to have wiped out thousands of rocket launchers were overblown, admitting the loss of only a few dozen such contraptions and the deaths of four fighters.

  • It is probably as well at this point to acknowledge one of the immutable laws of any active conflict.

  • All parties to it are, to some extent or another, lying, denying, occluding or deflecting.

  • There is no reason why they wouldn't.

  • Information is a weapon, and a weapon with considerable power to befuddle one's opponents and rally one's allies.

  • All reports from both sides of Israel's operations on the west bank this week should also be viewed through this filter.