2024-11-24
19 分钟UBS’s head of fixed income and co-lead of the bank’s ElectionWatch report series, Kurt Reiman, joins the show to reflect on Donald Trump’s US presidential election success. In a conversation recorded as Trump finalised appointments to his cabinet, Reiman discusses the likely direction of travel for the US economy under Trump 2.0. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hello and welcome to the Bulletin with UBS on Monocle Radio.
Each week, the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in finance take you beyond the numbers and hype right to the heart of the big issues of the day.
This week we're reflecting on an at the risk of making rather an understatement, eventful spell in US politics.
Donald Trump's success on November 6 followed a campaign built on a platform of extending personal income tax cuts, lower corporate taxes, deregulation tariffs, immigration controls, and reassessing America's role in global affairs.
With the Republicans having also secured control of Congress, the new president will have greater scope to pursue that policy agenda, albeit with a narrow congressional majority.
So where does this leave the US Whether in terms of its already large deficit, the potential impact of tariffs and so on?
Well, in a conversation recorded on 13 November, as Trump was finalizing appointments to his Cabinet, we caught up with Kurt Ryman, head of Fixed Income and co lead of UBS's Election Watch report series, to get a sense of his view on the direction of travel for the US government and economy under the soon to be 47th president of the United States.
It was a pleasure indeed to welcome Kurt to the show.
As mentioned, we spoke on the 13th as the flurry of Trump cabinet appointments and pronouncements was in full flow.
Kurt Ryman, first up, can you reflect on those happenings of the 6th of November for us?
What did you make of the general election day itself?
Well, we went into the election prepared for all outcomes.
The polls were suggesting this was going to be a very tight race.
And by all measures, at least on the popular vote, it ended up being a pretty tight race.
Except that when you look at the outcome from a electoral map or what happened in Congress, it looks like a pretty decisive victory for the Republicans who built on the results that they achieved in 2020, where now Donald Trump was able to claim that he won all seven of the swing states and extended the gains in the Senate so that now it's controlled by the Republicans.
It's right now a two seat majority, but it could be slightly more than that and also looks very much on track to be able to sweep Congress with maintaining control of the House of Representatives.
It's almost hard to imagine an even better outcome for this administration, for this presidency, for this campaign, for Republicans, given the fact that the polls were so close heading into the election.
Well, yeah, and just to that point, obviously we spoke with colleagues of yours in the bank over the past kind of few months in the buildup to general election day.
And they were talking about the likelihood of different outcomes.
And I don't know, obviously a red sweep.