2024-09-30
21 分钟We explore the annual report providing an up-to-date take on global urban-housing markets and gauges the ‘bubble risk’ in residential property markets in 25 major cities worldwide. The 2024 edition charts a second successive year of slightly declining risk. We are joined from UBS by the report’s editor in chief, Matthias Holzhey, and also by Fahd Iqbal for a focus on Dubai. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hello and welcome to the Bulletin with UBS on Monocle Radio.
Each week, the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in finance take you beyond the numbers and hype right to the heart of the big issues of the day.
Today, for an eighth year, we're dipping into the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, the annual report that brings an up to date take on global urban housing markets and gauges the bubble risk in residential property in 25 major cities around the world.
What characterises the scene set in the 2024 edition?
As we'll hear from our expert panel, bubble risk in housing markets declined further over the past 12 months.
That's a decrease for the second consecutive year.
Why so?
Well, inflation adjusted housing prices in the cities analysed are now on average roughly 15% lower than in the middle of 20 when interest rates started to surge globally.
As we're here, the cities recording the strongest price corrections are those that displayed a higher risk of a real estate bubble in previous years.
Our panelists are here to share their insights and to explain why the momentum in the housing market could be set to improve.
So let's hear from those guests.
We start with Matthias Holzhei Grebie, Editor in chief and senior real estate economist in the UBS Global Wealth Management CIO in Zurich.
Matthias, always a pleasure to welcome you back to the program to talk about the index.
It's the 10th edition, no less of the grebi.
But before we get into the detail of this year's edition, what kinds of.
Metrics and things are you looking at?
Again, some of it is, I guess, intuitive, but you build all kinds of really, really interesting data sets, some of which obviously we'll talk about in a second.
But in case we've got listeners maybe who haven't read the report before or heard our discussions, tell us some of the metrics and how you calibrate all of these findings.
Okay.
The basic purpose of the model is to quantify the risk of a housing bubble.