Election watch: momentum shift?

选举观察:势头转变?

The Bulletin with UBS

商务

2024-09-01

17 分钟
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Thomas McLaughlin, managing director at the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins the show to reflect on the recently concluded Democratic National Convention in Chicago. We discuss the broader context of Kamala Harris’s truncated campaign and consider what the latest polling tells us about November’s vote. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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  • Hello and welcome to the Bulletin with UBS on Monocle Radio.

  • Each week the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in finance take you beyond the numbers and hype right to the heart of the big issues of the day.

  • This week we're once again on Election Watch taking the temperature in the United States as the clock ticks towards November's compelling general election showdown between incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

  • In today's show, we'll reflect on the recently wrapped Democratic National Convention in Chicago, discuss the broader context of Vice President Harris truncated campaign for the Oval Office, and consider what the latest polling tells us too.

  • Following President Biden's rather abrupt decision to withdraw from the race back in July and to endorse his vp, the dynamics of the contest changed swiftly and pretty significantly.

  • Not only did Harris promptly garner enough support from fellow Democrats to be anointed as the party nominee, but recent polling suggests she's better positioned in a head to head contest against Trump.

  • So where do we stand and what does all this mean in terms of election scenarios and probabilities as well as for the potential direction of travel in terms of policy and economics in the US well, to consider those questions and more, it's an absolute delight to welcome back to the show Tom McLaughlin, managing director in the UBS Chief Investment Office.

  • He also co leads the U.S.

  • election Watch series of reports for the firm.

  • Tom, a warm welcome as always.

  • Just to interrogate you a little bit about your responses to the dnc.

  • Obviously, I guess the first thing to say is it was very different from many that I remember in recent memory.

  • There was so much kind of at stake.

  • There was a very different dynamic about it.

  • I don't know.

  • Is that the view of you and your colleagues even ahead of the DNC taking place?

  • It was actually an expression of greater enthusiasm for the national ticket than I even expected.

  • So my takeaways was that Harris had managed to hold a fractious party together based on two things, the first being opposition to former President Trump.

  • That's not surprising.

  • And secondly, widespread relief, I think, that President Biden had stepped aside and President Biden was given accolades throughout the four days of the convention.