2022-12-06
31 分钟Monocle’s editorial director, Tyler Brûlé, joins our specially convened panel of experts to look back on the pivotal events of the past 12 months and peer ahead to 2023. The panel includes: in Tokyo, Tomohiko Taniguchi, a foreign-policy specialist who formerly served as special advisor to the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s former prime minister; in Vilnius, Margarita Seselgyte, director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University; and in London, former US diplomat Lewis Lukens, who now serves as senior partner at Signum Global.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this edition of the Chiefs, our specially convened panel of experts will look back on the pivotal events of the past 12 months and peer ahead to 2023 from the war in Ukraine and the resulting global energy crisis.
2022 has been a momentous year.
So what's in store for the next 12 months?
Today I'm joined by three experts from all corners of the globe who will offer their take on the new year.
Joining me from Tokyo is Tomohiko Taniguchi, a foreign policy specialist who formerly served as special advisor to the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Joining us from Vilnius in Lithuania is Dr.
Margarita Sislgeta, Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.
And also joining us is former US Diplomat Louis Lukens, who now serves as senior partner at Signum Global in London.
I'm Tyler Brulee in Zurich and this is the Chiefs on Monocle 24.
It probably makes most sense that we start with, of course, what has really transpired to be the biggest news story of the year and focus on Ukraine.
Obviously, lessons learned, very difficult maybe at this point, but I'm sure there are, there are a few that we can certainly take away.
But I think also looking over the horizon as well.
And I'm thinking back to a conversation I had with a recently retired US army general who was saying that he believes that we'll be in a situation come springtime that Ukraine will have certainly taken back all territory, might have even actually gone the distance of also taking back some of Crimea as well.
But there was this feeling that by spring of 23, we should be largely out of this conflict, certainly in the format that we've seen now.
Louis, I want to maybe start with you on that.
Your view across the horizon.
Well, I mean, the analysis that I'm seeing indicates that this may be a longer and more drawn out war and that very much a war of attrition and not ending by the spring, but probably continuing through much of the next year.
I think that Ukraine taking territory back more quickly narrative is in some ways wishful thinking because I think Russia will rally and there'll be a lot of back and forth and territory that sort of swaps ownership over the course of the next six to eight to 10 months.
I don't think Russia will give up Crimea by any stretch of imagination.
I think, you know, that's sort of a red line for Putin.