A Polling Surprise Feat. Nate Silver

投票惊喜壮举。 内特·西尔弗

What A Day

新闻

2024-11-04

25 分钟
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单集简介 ...

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren’t predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren’t — telling us ahead of Election Day. Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted’ movement,’ talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.

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  • It's Monday, November 4th.

  • I'm Jane Costen, and this is what a Day.

  • The show that is celebrating my dad's 70th birthday.

  • I know there's a lot going on in the world, but my dad is the coolest guy I know.

  • With a record collection that fills entire closets and more World War II knowledge than anyone probably needs.

  • And hundreds of Formula One races on VHS.

  • Yes, still VHS.

  • So happy birthday to Byron Costen.

  • I, for one, am very proud to be his kid.

  • On today's show, we talk about the latest polling with Nate Silver, plus what the uncommitted movement is telling its supporters days before the election.

  • Let's get into it.

  • Election day is tomorrow.

  • 2 Ma Ro More than 75 million people have already voted and a slew of new polls released over the weekend showed some good news for Vice President Kamala Harris campaign.

  • The big one was in Iowa.

  • A poll from the Des Moines Register and pollster Ann Seltzer showed Harris up three points over former President Donald Trump.

  • It's definitely an outlier.

  • Most predict Trump will handily win the state for the third straight election cycle.

  • But Seltzer has some serious polling street cred.

  • And yes, that's a thing.

  • For one, she was one of the few pollsters who showed a much narrower victory for Joe Biden in 2020, when most polls showed him winning comfortably.