Zachary Mazlish on the Political Implications of Inflation and the Impact of Transformative AI

扎卡里·马兹利什 (Zachary Mazlish) 谈通货膨胀的政治影响和变革性人工智能的影响

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

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2024-12-02

50 分钟
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Zachary Mazlish is an economist at the University of Oxford, and he joins David on Macro Musings to explain some recent and important macroeconomic developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative AI. David and Zach also discuss transformative AI’s impact on asset pricing, optimal monetary policy in world of high growth, the causes of the slowdown in trend productivity, and more.   Transcript for this week’s  episode.   Zach’s Twitter: @ZMazlish Zach’s Substack Zach’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server!   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Yes, Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer* by Zachary Mazlish   *Transformative AI, Existential Risk, and Real Interest Rates* by Trevor Chow, Basil Halperin, and Zachary Mazlish   *Decomposing the Great Stagnation: Baumol’s Cost Disease vs. “Ideas Are Getting Hard to Find”* by Basil Halperin and Zachary Mazlish   *The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market* by David Autor, Arin Dube, and Annie McGrew   Timestamps:   (00:00:00) – Intro   (00:04:03) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: Comparing Periods of Wage Growth   (00:15:26) – Inflation Made the Median Voter Poorer: The Median Change in the Wage   (00:22:19) – Assessing the Feedback to Zachary’s Article   (00:25:05) – The Significance of Transformative AI and its Double-Edged Sword   (00:27:02) – The Impact of Transformative AI on Asset Pricing and its Policy Challenges   (00:38:07) – The Broader Macroeconomic Effects of Rapid Growth   (00:41:05) – Optimal Monetary Policy in a World of High Growth   (00:43:19) – Exploring the Causes of the Productivity Slowdown   (00:49:21) – Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro Musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past, present and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckwourth, a senior research fellow at the Mercitus center at George Mason University, and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Our guest today is Zachary Mazlis.

  • Zach is an economist at the University of Oxford and joins us today to help us make sense of some recent and important developments, specifically the inflation linkages to the 2024 presidential election and the macroeconomic implications of transformative A.I.

  • zach, welcome to the show.

  • Thanks so much for having me on.

  • David.

  • It's an honor to be here.

  • Well, it's great to have you on and you've written several interesting articles and our common friend, Basil Halperin is what connected us.

  • He directed me to the substack piece that you've written that's really fascinating.

  • In fact, it cleared up my thinking some of the questions I had on the linkages between inflation and the election.

  • We're going to talk about this article that you've written on your substack.

  • We'll provide links to this listeners in the show notes as well as Zach's website and all these articles that he have written.

  • They're really interesting.

  • The article was titled yes, Inflation Made the Median Voter Poor.

  • This is a very insightful piece and I was again thrilled to read it because it cleared up my thinking and hopefully it will clear up the thinking of some of our listeners too, because there's been so much said about real wages, real earnings during the pandemic period.

  • Many people have argued this is great evidence for running the economy hot.

  • Yeah, we had some inflation.

  • In fact, Paul Krugman you mentioned in your notes says, hey, but they've caught back up.

  • But there are a number of people who have said, well, it's more complicated than that.