The Fed Framework Review: Macro Musings’ Greatest NGDP Targeting Hits

美联储框架评论:Macro Musings的最大NGDP目标命中率

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

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2025-01-27

1 小时 5 分钟
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On this special greatest hits compilation episode our host David Beckworth primes listeners for the Fed Framework Review by highlighting the best snippets from past shows discussing nominal GDP targeting. This episode includes Mary Daly’s thoughts on NGDP targeting, Evan Koenig on the basics of NGDP targeting, George Selgin on Powell’s hesitations with NGDP targeting and how it responds to supply shocks, Jim Bullard on the financial stability of NGDP targeting, Eric Sims on the New Keynesian argument for NGDP targeting, Carola Binder on the benefits of NGDP targeting, Charlie Evans on the prospects of NGDP target, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week’s episode, now with links. Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our new AI chatbot: the Macro Musebot! Join the new Macro Musings Discord server! Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps: (00:00:00) – Intro (00:02:31) – Mary Daly on Nominal GDP Targeting Considerations for the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:06:13) – Evan Koenig on the Basics and Preferred Structure of a Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:14:17) – George Selgin on Chair Powell’s Concerns About Nominal GDP Targeting (00:21:35) – Jim Bullard on the Financial Stability Argument for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:24:12) – Eric Sims on the New Keynesian Rationale for Nominal GDP Targeting (00:28:23) – Carola Binder on Two Major Benefits of Nominal GDP Targeting (00:33:40) – George Selgin on How Nominal GDP Targeting Would Handle Supply Shocks (00:46:55) – Charlie Evans on the Prospects for Nominal GDP Targeting During the 2024-25 Fed Framework Review (00:50:57) – Bonus Segment: Enhancing the Nominal GDP Targeting Framework (00:53:08) – Gauti Eggertsson on the Merits of a Cumulative Nominal GDP Level Target (00:55:50) – Scott Sumner on Targeting a Nominal GDP Futures Contract (01:04:25) – Outro
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  • Welcome to Macro Musings, where each week we pull back the curtain and take a closer look at the most important macroeconomic issues of the past, present and future.

  • I am your host, David Beckwourth, a Senior Research Fellow at the Merketis center at George Mason University, and I'm glad you decided to join us.

  • Hey, Macro Musician listeners, this is your host, David Beckwourth.

  • Now that the Fed has formally launched its Framework Review, the monetary policy team here at the Mercatus center is launching a number of products to encourage the FOMC to think about and potentially use nominal GDP level targeting as a benchmark through which to evaluate changes to the Fed's framework.

  • To that end, we are launching a policy Brief series on the Framework Review with essays from a number of prominent monetary economists.

  • We are also doing this special show, which is a compilation of some of our greatest hits from the podcast on the topic of nominal GDP targeting.

  • We specifically put together clips that can inform and be useful to the Fed Framework Review process.

  • Our compilations consist of clips from past conversations with Mary Daly, Evan Koenig, Jim Bullard, Eric Sims, Carola Binder, George Seljian, and Charlie Evans.

  • These short segments should be very relevant and useful to the committee when they discuss the Framework Review.

  • We also have added two bonus clips from past conversations, Gotti Ergotson and Scott Sumner.

  • These outtakes are more ambitious, moonshot type proposals for versions of nominal GDP targeting.

  • These are really interesting proposals, but they are safe for the bonus portion of the show.

  • Okay, let's get into our greatest hits.

  • We kick things off with an excerpt from a live podcast recording we did with Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco fed, back in May 2024.

  • In this clip, Mary and I discuss whether nominal GDP targeting will be up for consider during the 202425 framework review.

  • Well, Mary, you know I'm a big fan and advocate of nominal GDP targeting, and I.

  • I was at a conference where you and a number of other Fed presidents were giving talks, and I remember Jim Bullard gave a talk on nominal GDP targeting.

  • He was, I know, one of the big champions inside the FOMC for nominal GDP targeting.

  • He has since stepped down.

  • Are there any champions left for nominal GDP targeting at the Fed?