An Election Post-Mortem With Tim Miller

一场与蒂姆·米勒的选举事后分析

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2024-11-12

45 分钟
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What exactly happened to the Kamala Harris campaign in this year’s presidential election? Host Jerusalem Demsas and Tim Miller, a former Republican strategist and the host of The Bulwark Podcast, tick through the competing narratives about why the Democrats lost and which ones actually hold up. Get more from your favorite Atlantic voices when you subscribe. You’ll enjoy unlimited access to Pulitzer-winning journalism, from clear-eyed analysis and insight on breaking news to fascinating explorations of our world. Subscribe today at TheAtlantic.com/podsub. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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  • In the aftermath of a bruising electoral loss,

  • the losing party begins participating in a well worn democratic tradition.

  • Slinging takes about what happened.

  • This is democracy.

  • When the voters send the dissatisfied response,

  • the messy work of recalibration requires parsing the signal from the noise.

  • Were voters mad because of a global inflationary environment

  • that no Democrat could dig their way out of?

  • Did they want to see specific breaks between Harris and Biden on policy?

  • Were they frustrated by a candidate they saw as too left?

  • On cultural issues, there are data points in favor of many different theses.

  • Here's where I'd put my stake in the ground,

  • with the caveat that we still don't have a complete analysis on subgroup dynamics

  • or even a final vote count on all the races.

  • First, incumbents worldwide were facing tough election odds.

  • Electorates were frustrated by the COVID inflationary years and were clearly seeking change.

  • In Australia, Sweden, the Netherlands, France and beyond,

  • ruling coalitions lost power across the political spectrum.

  • Second, I don't think Kamala Harris was ever going to be a great candidate.

  • After Biden's disastrous debate effort in late June,