Tariffs, trade and China’s ‘disappearing’ exports

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• 00:08

  Hello, and welcome to the Bulletin with UBS on Monocle Radio.

• 00:12

  Each week,

• 00:13

  the sharpest minds and freshest thinkers in finance take you beyond the numbers

• 00:17

  and hype right to the heart of the big issues of the day.

• 00:21

  I'm Chris Chermak, stepping in this week for Tom Edwards.

• 00:25

  Today,

• 00:25

  in the light of ongoing moves from the Oval Office since President Donald Trump's inauguration,

• 00:30

  we're focusing on tariffs and trade.

• 00:33

  We'll hear from UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Economist Paul Donovan,

• 00:38

  who's going to talk us through his recent research report

• 00:41

  on a possible Bermuda Triangle affecting Chinese exports to the United States.

• 00:47

  When looking at trade between two countries,

• 00:49

  the value of exports should be lower than the value of imports received on the other end,

• 00:55

  because in between the two are costs for shipping and insurance.

• 00:59

  In recent years, though,

• 01:00

  the value of China's reported exports

• 01:03

  to the US have exceeded the value of the US's recorded imports from China.

• 01:08

  This suggests that up to 30% of China's exports to the US are disappearing before they arrive.

• 01:15

  The anomaly is not evenly distributed across sectors,

• 01:19

  and it didn't start at the same time for all sectors either.

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