2025-02-23
1 小时 8 分钟You're listening to tip.
In this episode, we're exploring one of the most fascinating concepts in investing, which is risk.
We'll unpack how humanity's understanding of risk has evolved over centuries and why improving our knowledge of it is key to becoming a better investor.
We'll rewind to the earliest forms of gambling, dice games played with bones in ancient Egypt.
And we'll trace how humanity began quantifying uncertainty.
We'll explore how thinkers like Fibonacci, Pascal and Fermat laid the groundwork for probability theory, helping us shift from relying purely on luck to calculating odds.
You'll also learn how gamblers like Girolamo Cardano, who learn the hard way about the dangers of chance, helped shape ideas foundational to modern investing.
But investing isn't just about the quantitative.
It's about psychology, too.
We'll explore how risk is deeply intertwined with human behavior and psychology.
You'll hear how thinkers like Daniel Bernoulli taught us that managing risk requires understanding not just the odds, but human motivation, like how our perception of gains and losses shift as our wealth changes.
And of course, we're going to connect these ideas to investing.
You'll hear why Charlie Munger believes most academic models fall short because they fail to capture the real world complexities of the markets.
We'll learn about Munger's approach to risk and his appreciation of Pascal and Fermat's work.
You'll also hear how probability theory applies directly to your investment decisions, from building bear base and bull cases to assessing the odds of different outcomes.
Plus, we'll explore how risk management changes over your investing lifetime.
I'll share how my approach to risk has evolved.
Why?
You know, in my 30s now I'm chasing specific hurdle rates, but how I expect that strategy to probably shift as I focus more on wealth preservation.
As I get older and accumulate more wealth, we'll break down the powerful insights from prospect theory, which was a concept pioneered by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, which expanded heavily on utility theory.