India, the next economic superpower?

马丁·沃尔夫与阿文德·苏布拉马尼亚恩对话:印度,下一个经济超级大国?

The Economics Show

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2025-01-27

30 分钟
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India is the world’s most populous nation, and since the 1990s it has maintained almost Chinese levels of rapid economic growth. Prime Minister Narendra Modi aims to make India a high income country and, by implication, an economic superpower by 2047. But is that achievable? This week’s guest, Arvind Subramanian, is a former chief economic adviser to Modi’s government. He is sceptical that the necessary growth rate can be sustained. Instead, he tells Martin Wolf how he thinks the government has scared off the necessary business investment, and how a serious miscalculation by the country’s central bank may be about to plunge India into a currency crisis. Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. You can find his column here Subscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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  • India is a country close to my heart.

  • I first got to know the country in 1974

  • when I was the senior economist in the World Bank's India Division.

  • And I've been following the story of India's development up and down ever since.

  • As India has transformed,

  • particularly since the dramatic reforms in the early 1990s introduced by the late Manmohan Singh,

  • the ambitions of the country have increased and expanded dramatically in line with its improved economic performance.

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi has even set the goal of becoming a high income country.

  • And of course, by implications, it would then be a global superpower by 2047,

  • the hundredth anniversary of India's independence.

  • My guest today is someone who has worked for Narendra Modi and who has his own views about how realistic the Prime Minister's ambitions are.

  • He is also one of India's most distinguished economists.

  • This is the Economics Show.

  • I'm Martin Wolff, and in this episode I'm speaking to Arvind Subrahmanian,

  • who was most significantly the chief economic advisor to the government of India between 2014 and 2018,

  • during which he wrote some really fascinating reports for the government.

  • He's now senior fellow at both the Peterson Institute for International Economics

  • and the Watson Institute for International and Public affairs at Brown University.

  • So, Arvind, welcome to the show.

  • Great to be on the show, Martin, thanks for having me.