How big a fiscal hole is the British government in? With Paul Johnson

单集文稿 ...

• 00:01

  Rachel Reeves has not had a lot of luck

• 00:03

  since being appointed Britain's first female Chancellor of the Exchequer.

• 00:07

  Last July.

• 00:08

  The UK's finance minister and the Labour government she serves were elected on a promise not to raise vat,

• 00:14

  income tax or national insurance, while also boosting public investment,

• 00:18

  and all while maintaining fiscal rectitude.

• 00:22

  The idea was that a big push on economic growth would make the sums add up.

• 00:27

  But growth in the UK has stalled for a year now and the economic uncertainty emanating from Trump's White House could make matters even worse.

• 00:36

  Meanwhile, government borrowing costs have risen thanks to stubbornly high inflation,

• 00:40

  with long term borrowing costs hitting the Highest level since 1998 at one point back in January.

• 00:46

  And now the UK must suddenly ramp up defence spending as the US security guarantee comes into question.

• 00:53

  So where will the money come from?

• 00:55

  Will the Chancellor have to break her own fiscal rules or will she have to break the government's pledge not to raise personal taxes?

• 01:10

  This is the Economics show and I'm the FT's economics editor, Sam Fleming.

• 01:14

  Joining me in the studio is a familiar face to anybody who follows the UK's public finances.

• 01:19

  Paul Johnson is the Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies,

• 01:23

  an independent think tank that has become the preeminent outside adjudicator of the British Government's finances for half a century.

• 01:30

  Paul first started out at the IFS back in 1988 as a fresh faced Oxford graduate.

• 01:35

  He then went off to do various stints in government before returning as the institute's director in 2011.

• 01:41

  But after 14 years in charge,

• 全部文稿