2025-04-10
3 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I'm Michael Zezis,
Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.
Today, possible outcomes of President Trump's sudden pause on reciprocal tariffs.
It's Wednesday, April 9th, at 10 p.m. in New York.
We actually planned a different episode for release today,
where my colleague Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter and I laid out developments in the market thus far and looked at different sets of potential outcomes.
Needless to say,
all of that changed after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs that were set to rise.
And so we need to update our thinking.
It's been a truly unprecedented week for financial markets.
The volatility started on April 2nd,
with President Trump's announcement that new reciprocal tariffs would take effect on April 9th.
When added to already announced tariffs and later adding even more tariffs in for China,
it all added up to a promise by the U.S. to raise its average tariffs to levels not seen in 100 years.
Understandably, equity markets sold off in a volatile fashion,
reflecting investor concerns that the U.S. was committed to retrenching from global trade,
inviting recession and an economic future with less potential growth.
The bond market also showed signs of considerable strain.
Instead of yields falling to reflect growth concerns, they started rising and market liquidity weakened.
The exact rationale is still hard to pin down,