2025-04-05
3 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Michael Zezis, Morgan Stanley's global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy.
Today, we'll be talking about the market impacts of the recently announced tariff increases.
It's Friday, April 4th, at 1pm in New York.
This week, as planned, President Trump unveiled tariff increases.
These reciprocal tariffs were hiked with the stated goal of reducing the US's goods trade deficit with other countries.
We've long anticipated
that higher tariffs on a broad range of imports would be a fixture of US policy in the second Trump term,
and that whatever you thought of the goals tariffs were driving towards,
their enactment would come at an economic cost along the way.
That cost is what helped drive our team's preference for fixed income over more economically sensitive equities.
But this week's announcement underscored that we actually underestimated the speed and severity of implementation.
Following this week's reciprocal tariff announcement, tariffs on imports from China are approaching 60%.
The level we didn't anticipate would be reached until 2026.
And while we expected the number of product-specific tariffs would be levied,
we didn't anticipate the broad-based import tariffs announced this week.
All totaled, the US effective tariff rate is now around 22%, having started the year at 3%.
So what's next?
Our colleagues across Morgan Stanley Research have detailed their expected impacts across equity sectors and asset classes,
and here are some key takeaways to keep in mind.