2025-03-21
8 分钟Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.
I'm Matthew Hornbach, global head of macro strategy.
And I'm Michael Gaepin, Morgan Stanley's chief US economist.
Today we're talking about the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting and the path for rates from here.
It's Thursday, March 20th at 10 a.m. in New York.
Mike, the Fed released a new set of projections yesterday.
What do these say and what did you learn from them?
Yeah Matt, well the Fed's forecast actually now look a lot like our outlook for the US economy.
So they revised down their expectation of growth.
They revised up their expectation for inflation.
So it has a bit of a stagflation, slower growth, stickier inflation outlook,
which is very much what we were thinking coming into this year.
The Fed also though highlighted high policy uncertainty.
They wrote down a forecast, but I'm not all that convinced that they have a lot of confidence in how things will evolve.
So I think for me really the bigger story were their updated perceptions about uncertainty and risks to the outlook.
So in December, if you remember,
they told us virtually everybody on the committee said uncertainty around inflation is high and risk to inflation to the upside.
They complimented that this week with the fact that uncertainty around growth in the labor market is high,
but risk to growth is to the downside, the unemployment rate to the upside.
So you have competing risks here around the Fed's dual mandate.