Rethinking keynesian fiscal stimulus

重新思考凯恩斯主义财政刺激政策

LSE: Public lectures and events

教育

2025-04-02

1 小时 21 分钟
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Contributor(s): Professor Valerie Ramey | Join us for the 2025 Economica-Phillips Lecture which will be delivered by Valerie Ramey. Starting in the 1930s, Keynesian fiscal stimulus was the leading policy tool for fighting recessions, but it subsequently fell out of favor with the discovery of the permanent income hypothesis and evidence for the effectiveness of monetary policy. However, Keynesian fiscal stimulus re-emerged as an important policy tool when interest rates hit the effective lower bound during the Global Financial Crisis. Most policymakers and many academics now believe that temporary transfers, infrastructure spending, and other types of government purchases and tax programs are effective ways to fight recessions. This lecture revisits the evidence for this view. Using a variety of methods to check the plausibility of some of the leading estimates and models, it identifies cases in which these types of spending did not appear to stimulate the macroeconomy as intended. It also discusses the costs of fiscal stimulus, both in terms of the ratcheting up of the government debt-GDP ratio and the negative effects of distortionary tax finance on GDP.
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  • Welcome to the LSE Events podcast by the London School of Economics and Political Science.

  • Get ready to hear from some of the most influential international figures in the social sciences.

  • So welcome everybody and thank you for joining us at the LSE for this evening's event,

  • which is hosted by the LSE's Department of Economics and Economics.

  • My name is Wouter Den Haan and I'm a professor in the Department of Economics and until very recently an editor of Economics.

  • Throughout this history, Economics has been LSE's house journal and history now spends more than 100 years.

  • In fact,

  • we recently celebrated our 100th anniversary and to commemorate that is

  • that we're still in the process of publishing 100 papers by current and former LSE economic affiliates.

  • So if anybody is in that category, check out our website.

  • So turning to this evening's event,

  • I'm very pleased to welcome Professor Valerie Raimi to deliver the Economic of Phillips 2025 lecture.

  • Phillips used to be a professor here at the LSE.

  • Professor Raimi is Professor Emerita of Economics at the University of California,

  • San Diego and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute.

  • She has published numerous scholarly and policy-relevant articles on macroeconomic topics,

  • such as, and now this is the longest,

  • the sources of business cycles, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy and the impact of volatility on growth.

  • She has also written numerous articles on trends in wage inequality, changes in time use,

  • such as the increase in time investment in children by educated parents.

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