You Don't Need a Crystal Ball

你不需要水晶球

Hidden Brain

社会科学

2022-03-29

49 分钟
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单集简介 ...

When disaster strikes — from the explosion of a space shuttle to the spread of a deadly virus — we want to know whether we could have avoided catastrophe. Did anyone speak up with concerns about the situation? And if so, why didn’t someone listen? This week, we revisit a favorite episode about the psychology of warnings, and how we can all become better at predicting the future.
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  • T -15 seconds.

  • This is hidden brain.

  • I'm Shankar Vedant.

  • T minus ten, nine.

  • On January 28, 1986, the Challenger spacecraft blasted off from Cape Canaveral.

  • And liftoff.

  • Liftoff of the 25th space shuttle mission.

  • And it has cleared the tower.

  • Seconds after liftoff, into a clear blue sky, something went wrong.

  • Flight controllers here looking very carefully at the situation.

  • Obviously a major malfunction.

  • It was much more than a malfunction.

  • It was a disaster.

  • As millions of people watched in horror, trails of smoke and debris flew off in different directions.

  • We have a report from the flight dynamics officer that the vehicle has exploded.

  • The space shuttle blew up.

  • Those words flashing across America today.

  • The Challenger exploded this morning just after a liftoff from Cape Canaveral.

  • The crew of seven now presumed dead.

  • After the explosion, NASA officials were hauled to Capitol Hill and put to questioning who finally made that decision to go, what was the chain?